By Anton Krivenyuk
The world is perhaps standing on the brink of another major war, which may kick off in Iran. Sources close to special services of different countries even come up with dates when the war may begin. The Southern Caucasus borders on Iran. Russia’s borders are near the country too. GeorgiaTimes and a scientist of politics of the Tbilisi State University (Georgia) tried to predict what consequences the armed conflict may lead to for separate countries of the region.
The war may begin when Israel strikes “nuclear” objects in Iran. The United States will support the attack. If it happens, the new large-scale war will become inevitable. Iran is not Libya, and not even Iraq. In addition, anti-Iranian enemies have failed to build the “axis of hatred” around Iran. Therefore, many countries in the region will support Iran either directly or by implication. In particular, it goes about China. Chinese President Hu Jintao stated that if the USA or any other country attacked Iran, China would take responsive measures immediately. As for Moscow, sources at Russia’s Defense Ministry said that the forces in the region had already been mobilized in case of a possible war.
Many Iranians come to Armenia, a republic of the former Soviet Union, for weekends. Women feel more liberated there, whereas men can drink cognac freely. The times, when Iran was separated from the Caucasus with the iron curtain of the Soviet Union, have become a thing of the past. Nowadays, for many residents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Iran is not an exotic state at all.
Armenia and Azerbaijan only border on Iran; the countries can only careless about the problems of their neighbor. However, it only seems so. The war with Iran, if it ever happens, is not going to be a regional conflict.
Georgian scientist of politics, Solomon Lebanoidze, is pessimistic about the future of the region. As he said in an interview with GeorgiaTimes, the war in Iran is very likely to happen. “It may happen that this war may grow into World War III. No one is going to stay aside. There are many nuances here that will not give any country of the Caucasus an opportunity to remain a serene harbor,” the expert said.
Russia will obviously stand up against the war with Iran. It will not be possible for Russia not to be involved in the conflict. Russia may come into a military alliance with China in case of the conflict. The alliance may gradually develop into the anti-Western coalition of forces against Israel and the USA, if they get involved in the war too.
“If the war begins, the Russian army base in Armenia will find itself isolated. If it happens, Russia may try to take measures to make a corridor via Georgia, the expert believes. “Georgia and Iran have pragmatic and friendly relations. I believe that Georgia will try to play a passive role in the process,” the scientist of politics said.
According to the Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper, Russia is already concerned about the security of its army base in Armenia. Servicemen’s families have left the base, whereas the personnel have moved to another area, closer to the borders with Turkey.
The isolation of the Russian base in Armenia may push Azerbaijan towards another war for Nagorny Karabakh. “Azerbaijan may use Russia’s weakening position in Armenia and launch the war for the liberation of Karabakh. The way how the war develops depends on larger participants, such as the United States and Turkey. I do not think that the States will be passive in this situation,” the scientist of politics said.
For the Southern Caucasus, the war with Iran may resemble the time in the beginning of the 1990s, when the region was “depressurized” from its common condition. Many conflicts and wars sparked because of them, and many of them are still unsolved.